2008—2022年徐州市艾滋病发病及死亡趋势分析-东南大学学报医学版

2008—2022年徐州市艾滋病发病及死亡趋势分析

单位：徐州市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防制科, 江苏徐州 221000

分类号：R512.91

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·43·第一期（104-110）

摘要：

目的: 分析徐州市2008-2022年艾滋病发病和死亡趋势,并探讨年龄、时期及队列对其的影响,为有效控制艾滋病提供科学指导。方法: 采用Joinpoint回归方法和年龄-时期-队列模型分析徐州市2008-2022年艾滋病发病率和死亡率趋势。结果: 2008-2022年徐州市艾滋病总人口和男性发病率平均每年增长13.93%[平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)=13.93%,P<0.001]和18.78%(AAPC=18.78%,P<0.001);总人口和男性死亡率平均每年增长6.15%[年度变化百分比(APC)=AAPC=6.15%,P=0.001]和10.48%(AAPC=10.48%,P=0.001),女性死亡率平均每年下降4.93%(APC=AAPC=-4.93%,P=0.016)。2008-2022年徐州市艾滋病总人口发病率纵向年龄曲线呈"J"形上升趋势,死亡率纵向年龄曲线呈波动上升趋势。男性和女性艾滋病发病率和死亡率的时期RR值均先上升后下降。队列效应显示男性发病风险峰值在2003-2007年出生的队列;女性发病风险峰值在1968-1972年出生的队列。总人口和男性死亡风险出生队列效应整体呈现平稳状态;女性出生队列死亡风险波动较小。结论: 2008-2022年徐州市总人口艾滋病发病率和死亡率均呈现上升趋势,男性发病和死亡风险均高于女性。老年群体艾滋病发病和死亡风险较大,在2003-2007年出生的男性队列艾滋病发病风险最高。

Objective: To analyze the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality in Xuzhou from 2008 to 2022,and explore the influence of age,period and cohort on HIV/AIDS,so as to provide scientific guidance for effective HIV control. Methods: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the trends of incidence and mortality of HIV/AIDS in Xuzhou from 2008 to 2022. Results: From 2008 to 2022 in Xuzhou,the incidence of HIV/AIDS in the total population and males average annually increased by 13.93%[average annual percent change(AAPC)=13.93%,P<0.001] and 18.78%(AAPC=18.78%,P<0.001),respectively. The mortality of HIV/AIDS in the total population and males average annually increased by 6.15%[annual percent change(APC)=AAPC=6.15%,P=0.001] and 10.48%(AAPC=10.48%,P=0.001),respectively,while in female average annually declined 4.93%(APC=AAPC=-4.93%,P=0.016). From 2008 to 2022,the longitudinal age curve of the incidence of HIV/AIDS showed a "J"-shaped upward trend,and the longitudinal age curve of the mortality of HIV/AIDS showed a fluctuating upward trend among total population in Xuzhou. The period RR values of HIV incidence and mortality increased first and then decreased for both male and female. The cohort effect showed that the peak risk was in the male cohort born between 2003 and 2007,while for female was in the cohort born between 1968 and 1972. The birth cohort effect of total population and male mortality risk remained stable. The risk of death in the female birth cohort fluctuated less.Conclusion: The incidence and mortality of HIV/AIDS in the total population of Xuzhou showed an increasing trend from 2008 to 2022,and the incidence and mortality risk of males were higher than those of females. The risk of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality is greater in older age groups,and the highest incidence in the male cohort born between 2003 and 2007.

参考文献：

[1] 张晗希.中国艾滋病病毒感染者自杀死亡分布及相关疾病负担研究[D].北京:中国疾病预防控制中心,2021.
[2] KIM H J,FAY M P,FEUER E J,et al.Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates[J].Stat Med,2000,19(3):335-351.
[3] 蔡洁,陈宏达,卢明,等.2005-2015年中国胰腺癌发病与死亡趋势分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(5):794-800.
[4] ROSENBERG P S,CHECK D P,ANDERSON W F.A web tool for age-period-cohort analysis of cancer incidence and mortality rates[J].Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev,2014,23(11):2296-2302.
[5] YANG Y.Trends in U.S.adult chronic disease mortality,1960-1999:age,period,and cohort variations[J].Demography,2008,45(2):387-416.
[6] 周利慧,彭琴,王媛,等.中国居民1993-2017年房颤发病及死亡趋势年龄-时期-队列模型分析[J].中国公共卫生,2021,37(11):1672-1676.
[7] 侯皓,裴一霏,俞斌,等.2004-2019年中国农村人群自杀死亡趋势的年龄-时期-队列模型分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2022,26(1):34-39.
[8] 郑灵巧,陈清峰,沈洁.中国艾滋病防治政策与策略发展历程回溯[J].中国艾滋病性病,2019,25(7):657-661.
[9] 韩孟杰,陈清峰,徐鹏,等.砥砺奋进"十三五"艾滋病防控迈向新征程——我国艾滋病防治回顾与展望[J].中国艾滋病性病,2021,27(12):1327-1331.
[10] 李艳,林梓铭,谢颖倩,等.中国经性传播艾滋病的流行特征与防控策略进展[J].中华预防医学杂志,2018,52(12):1309-1314.
[11] UNAIDS.UNAIDS data 2019[EB/OL].[2023-04-28].https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/2019-UNAIDS-data_en.pdf.
[12] TANG S,TANG W,MEYERS K,et al.HIV epidemiology and responses among men who have sex with men and transgender individuals in China:a scoping review[J].BMC Infect Dis,2016,16(1):588.
[13] 国家卫生健康委员会疾病预防控制局.2019年我国艾滋病防治工作取得新进展[J].中国艾滋病性病,2019,25(12):1205.
[14] 赵虹琳,李巧梅,李婷婷,等.2004-2018年中国艾滋病发病与死亡趋势及其年龄-时期-队列模型分析[J].中国全科医学,2023,26(4):409-416.
[15] SCHRAMM B,TEMFACK E,DESCAMPS D,et al.Viral suppression and HIV-1 drug resistance 1 year after pragmatic transitioning to dolutegravir first-line therapy in Malawi:a prospective cohort study[J].Lancet HIV,2022,9(8):e544-e553.
[16] 陈亮,连巧龄,张明雅.福建省 ≥ 60岁艾滋病病毒感染者/艾滋病患者流行病学特征分析[J].中国公共卫生,2021,37(8):1205-1208.
[17] 邓小芳,岑平,汤洪洋,等.我国50岁以上艾滋病病例晚发现的研究进展[J].现代医学,2020,48(9):1245-1247.
[18] 丁建平,刘晓燕,胡海洋,等.江苏省艾滋病防治工作30年发展报告[J].江苏预防医学,2022,33(1):1-2.
[19] FANG E F,SCHEIBYE-KNUDSEN M,JAHN H J,et al.A research agenda for aging in China in the 21st century[J].Ageing Res Rev,2015,24(Pt B):197-205.
[20] 穆程秀,孙传武,张利宁,等.2011-2020年徐州市艾滋病流行趋势分析[J].中国校医,2022,36(1):9-11.
[21] 刘晓燕,史灵恩,陈禹衡,等.江苏省HIV/AIDS死亡患者特征分析[J].中国艾滋病性病,2023,29(4):392-397.
[22] XU J J,HAN M J,JIANG Y J,et al.Prevention and control of HIV/AIDS in China:lessons from the past three decades[J].Chin Med J(Engl),2021,134(23):2799-2809.
[23] 金霞,熊燃,王丽艳,等.2010-2014年我国HIV感染病例的晚发现情况分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2016,37(2):218-221.
[24] 穆程秀,张利宁,孙传武.徐州市2016-2020年HIV/AIDS患者晚发现情况分析[J].中国农村卫生,2022,14(8):62-65.
[25] BELAY H,ALEMSEGED F,ANGESOM T,et al.Effect of late HIV diagnosis on HIV-related mortality among adults in General Hospitals of Central Zone Tigray,Northern Ethiopia:a retrospective cohort study[J].HIV AIDS(Auckl),2017,9:187-192.
[26] 蔡畅,汤后林,李东民,等.我国艾滋病患者的死亡趋势及其相关危险因素分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(1):121-125.
[27] 袁苑,谭唯,张燕,等.新型冠状病毒感染流行对深圳市HIV/AIDS病例报告及检测工作的影响[J].中国艾滋病性病,2023,29(3):268-272.
[28] HUANG D,ZUNONG J,LI M,et al.COVID-19 clinical presentation among HIV-infected persons in China:a systematic review[J].Curr HIV/AIDS Rep,2022,19(3):167-176.
[29] 国务院防治艾滋病工作委员会办公室,联合国艾滋病中国专题组.中国艾滋病防治联合评估报告(中文版)[EB/OL].[2023-04-28].https://www.chinaaids.cn/ddpg/lhpgbg1/zgazbyq/201312/W020131210547938445093.pdf.
[30] 黄亚阳,马迎华,胡翼飞,等.我国15省大学生首次性行为发生年龄及影响因素[J].首都公共卫生,2017,11(3):99-102.
[31] 李秀芳,张北川,于增照,等.6城市1295例男男性行为者安全套使用相关状况调查概况[J].中国艾滋病性病,2010,16(5):449-452.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】

提示：您还未登录，请登录！点此登录