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外周血hsCRP及影像学检查对轻型急性缺血性卒中患者一年内复发风险的预测价值分析
作者:赵晓慧1  杜青2  顾宝东2 
单位:1. 南京中医药大学连云港附属医院 检验科, 江苏 连云港 222000;
2. 南京中医药大学连云港附属医院 脑病科, 江苏 连云港 222000
关键词:轻型卒中 超敏C反应蛋白 影像学 复发 列线图 危险因素 
分类号:R743.3;R445;R446.1
出版年·卷·期(页码):2022·41·第一期(120-125)
摘要:

目的:分析外周血超敏C反应蛋白(hsCRP)及影像学对轻型急性缺血性卒中患者1年内复发风险的预测价值。方法:选取了中国颅内动脉粥样硬化研究中502例发病时间在7 d内的轻型卒中患者,利用Cox回归模型筛选卒中复发独立危险因素,将入选危险因素纳入列线图风险预测模型,并对模型预测能力进行ROC曲线分析。结果:入院时高水平hsCRP (HR 2.686,95%CI:1.302~5.542)、颅内动脉多发狭窄(HR 2.813,95%CI:1.112~7.119)、较低的NIHSS评分(HR 0.513,95%CI:0.360~0.732)、发病1年时无抗栓治疗(HR 0.403,95%CI:0.199~0.817)是轻型卒中患者1年内卒中复发的独立危险因素。列线图预测模型C指数为0.791(95%CI:0.723~0.858),模型在发病30 d内、1年内预测卒中复发的ROC曲线的AUC分别为0.806、0.799,校准图显示校准度较好。结论:入院时hsCRP≥3 mg·L-1、影像学上存在颅内动脉多发狭窄、低NIHSS评分、发病1年时无抗栓治疗是轻型卒中复发的危险因素,将生化及影像学等信息整合后组成的列线图预测模型具有良好的区分度和校准度,能较好地预测评估轻型卒中患者复发缺血性卒中的风险,效能优于单独预测。

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