Objective: To explore risk factors of thyroid cancer recurrence and establish prediction model for recurrent thyroid cancer. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the patients diagnosed pathologically with thyroid cancer during the period from June, 2009 to December, 2012 and followed up the patients. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate recurrence rates and to plot relapse-free survival curves of patients at different levels of predictive factors. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to analysis inde-pendent risk factors of patients' relapse and establish prediction model for recurrent thyroid cancer. Results: 376 cases of thyroid cancer patients were included, male 86 cases, female 290 cases, age 16-81 years old, mean age (43.5±8.1)years old, followed up 1 to 58 months, with a median follow-up time of 24 months. 97 cases of (25.8%) patients relapse, relapse-free survival time from 1 to 58 months, one year, two years, three years cumulative recurrence-free survival rates were 96.8%, 92.5%, 87.9%. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis found that maximum tumor diameter> 4 cm, lobectomy plus isthmus resection, undifferentiated carcinoma, did not undergo lymph node dissection were independent risk factors for recurrence with thyroid cancer (P<0.05). The risk of recurrence in patients with thyroid cancer function model expression was:h(t)=h0exp(3.798 x1+2.721 x2+5.972 x3+2.679 x4). Conclusion: Tumor size, lobectomy plus isthmectomy, high degree of malignancy histopathology, and without lymph node dissection are the main risk factors for thyroid cancer recurrence |