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应用CV2估计危险因素的重要性
作者:沈其君 李雪松 
单位:东南大学公共卫生学院,江苏,南京,210009
关键词:变异系数 经验Bayes估计 相对重要性 标准化发病比 
分类号:R195.1
出版年·卷·期(页码):2002·21·第三期(209-212)
摘要:

通过研究人群中个体发病危险变异系数(CV2)来反映危险因素对人群发病的作用大小;系统地介绍了CV2的单因素估计方法,应用分层方法和统计模型拟合资料后记分函数探讨了多因素条件下CV2的估计方法,并应用于饮酒与食管癌发病关系的病例对照研究资料的分析,分别估计了不同年龄组人群饮酒对食管癌发病的重要性(CV2值),且与人群归因比例估计方法和估计结果进行了比较研究;可以认为人群CV2可克服人群归因比较估计中基线水平对估计结果的影响,在流行病学研究中可作为评价危险因素对人群发病重要性的指标,并可补充相对危险度和人群归因比例的不足.

This paper introduces coefficient of variation(  CV  2  ) of incidence risk which is influenced by epidemiologic risk factor(s) to evaluate individual and collective impact of risk factors on the incidence of population under investigation.The estimation of   CV    2 for single risk factor and multiple risk factor by means of the stratification and Logistic discriminant score is applied to data on cancer of the esophagus.The   CV    2 values for impact of drinking alcohol on incidence of cancer of the esophagus in different age groups are estimated, and compared with the attributable fractions.It is believed from the method and results that coefficient of variation has advantage of not depending on an arbitrary classification of a baseline category and can be used as a measure of risk attribution and complement measure for the relative risk and attributable fraction.

参考文献:

[1] Begg C B, SATAGOPAN J M, BERWICK M. A new strategy for evaluating the impact of epidemiologic risk factors for cancer with application to melanoma, 1998
[2] Anderson J A. Separate sample Logistic discrimination. 1972. doi:10.1093/biomet/59.1.19
[3] Walter S D. The estimation and interpretation of attributable risk in health research. 1976. doi:10.2307/2529268
[4] GRENLAND S, ROBINS J M. Conceptual problem in the definition and interpretation of attributable fractions, 1988
[5] Breslow N E, DAY N E. Statistical methods in cancer research Vol.Ⅰ:the analysis of case-control studies.Lyon:, 1980  

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